Hear Wu Yunhao, Senior Vice President, SteelHome speak at Eurocoke Summit 2026 and gain insight into China’s evolving coking coal and coke markets.
Ahead of the event, we asked Wu to share his thoughts on the latest market trends and outlook, which you can watch or read below.
China remains at the centre of global coking coal and coke markets, with changes in domestic supply, import demand and steel production continuing to influence international trade flows and pricing.
As China’s energy transition accelerates and tighter domestic mine safety regulations constrain premium hard coking coal supply, market participants are facing a changing balance between supply and demand. At the same time, growing overland imports from Mongolia and Russia are reshaping traditional seaborne trade dynamics.
Ahead of EuroCoke Summit 2026, we spoke with Wu Yunhao, Senior Vice President at SteelHome, about the structural changes taking place across China’s coke and coking coal markets, and what they could mean for global prices, trade flows and industry competitiveness over the next 12 months.
Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Shanghai, SteelHome is a professional information platform serving China’s steel, coke and coal supply chains. Its services cover spot prices, price indices, industry data and market analysis across products ranging from coking coal and coke to iron ore and steel.
For Wu Yunhao, EuroCoke provides an important platform for connecting the Chinese market with international industry participants.
“EuroCoke is one of the most professional and forward-looking forums in the global coking industry,” he explains.
SteelHome’s participation in the event is not simply about presenting a Chinese perspective, but about strengthening understanding between Chinese and international markets.
“We hope to build a bridge for two-way understanding, helping international peers better grasp the underlying dynamics of the Chinese market, while also allowing China’s industry to more clearly perceive global shifts.”
Drawing on SteelHome’s proprietary first-hand data, Wu will examine three key areas at EuroCoke: China’s effective coke production capacity, the way Chinese import demand is reshaping global coking coal trade flows and pricing, and the regional competitive landscape for Chinese coke exports.
According to Wu, three major trends are currently defining China’s coke and coking coal markets.
China’s total coke and coal supply and demand have entered a plateau and are gradually contracting, reflecting broader structural changes in the country’s energy and industrial landscape.
China’s green energy transition is accelerating, with coal-fired power generation falling below 50% of total electricity output for the first time in the first half of 2026.
At the same time, tighter safety regulations at domestic coal mines have significantly reduced the availability of premium hard coking coal, creating what Wu describes as a persistent structural tightness in the market.
This combination of declining overall demand and constrained premium coal supply is creating a market where headline volumes tell only part of the story.
The second major trend is the growing influence of Chinese import demand on international coking coal pricing.
Overland supply chains, particularly those involving Mongolia and Russia, continue to strengthen their position, while the relative share of seaborne coal is declining.
According to Wu, prices for Mongolian and Russian coal are becoming increasingly closely linked to China’s domestic futures and export markets, with the timing and scale of Chinese procurement acting as a key anchor for international coal price movements.
This represents an important shift in global market dynamics, with developments within China increasingly transmitting directly into international coking coal pricing.
The third major trend is the changing focus of China’s coking industry.
Rather than simply expanding nominal capacity, producers are increasingly focused on operational efficiency, profitability and cost management.
Large coke ovens of 5.5 metres or above now account for more than 91% of capacity, demonstrating the extent to which the industry has already modernised its production base.
However, Wu points out that nominal capacity does not necessarily translate into actual production.
“Actual output is determined by profitability rather than nominal capacity.”
Environmental requirements are also increasing the cost burden on producers. Ultra-low-emission coke ovens have increased operating costs by approximately €11–€16 per tonne, contributing to a structural upward shift in the industry cost curve.
This is creating a growing advantage for integrated steel and coke producers, while smaller independent coke plants face increasing pressure.
The result is a sector moving away from a traditional focus on capacity expansion and towards operational optimisation, cost competitiveness and resilience.
Looking ahead, Wu identifies four areas that market participants should monitor closely.
The first is the pace and impact of domestic coal mine safety policies, particularly given their implications for premium hard coking coal supply.
The second is the progress of environmental measures and capacity elimination within the coking sector, which could further reshape China’s effective coke production capacity.
The third is the potential diversion of export market demand resulting from new coal capacity in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, which could alter regional trade flows and competition.
Finally, market participants will need to monitor the transmission of China’s macroeconomic policies into overall steel and coke demand.
Together, these factors are likely to contribute to a market characterised by simultaneous contraction in supply and demand, alongside increasingly pronounced structural divergence.
Over the next 12 months, Wu expects domestic mine safety enforcement in China to remain stringent, with the scarcity of premium hard coking coal continuing.
At the same time, overland imports from Mongolia and Russia are expected to increase steadily. However, these additional volumes may not fully resolve the shortage of high-quality coking coal.
Most of the additional imported volumes are gas coal, with around one-third being coking coal. While these grades can contribute to blending requirements, they cannot completely replace the high-quality “skeleton” coal required by coke producers.
On the demand side, the third and fourth quarters traditionally represent peak production periods. However, constrained availability of premium coking coal could limit the operating flexibility of both coke plants and steel mills.
As a result, Wu expects a simultaneous reduction in both market supply and demand, rather than a straightforward recovery in production.
The outlook also differs between coking coal and coke.
Coking coal is expected to remain structurally tight, supported by the persistent shortage of premium grades. As a result, its price fluctuations are likely to remain relatively narrower than those of coke.
Coke prices, meanwhile, are expected to be more volatile.
Coke demand will continue to be influenced by steel mill hot-metal production, while prices will also remain subject to transmission effects across the upstream and downstream supply chain.
Despite these differences, Wu expects the average price levels for both coking coal and coke over the next 12 months to edge higher compared with the first half of 2026.
China’s coke and coking coal industries are entering a period in which traditional measures of capacity and production tell an increasingly incomplete story.
Domestic supply constraints, environmental requirements, changing import patterns and the energy transition are all reshaping the market. At the same time, China’s procurement activity is playing an increasingly important role in determining international coking coal pricing and trade flows.
For producers, traders and steelmakers, understanding these structural shifts will be critical to navigating the next phase of the market.
As Wu Yunhao’s analysis suggests, the next 12 months are likely to be characterised by tighter premium coking coal supply, changing trade flows, greater pressure on coke producers and a continued upward shift in the market cost curve.
Hear more from Wu Yunhao at EuroCoke Summit this September! Book your ticket now.
Join Wu Yunhao, Senior Vice President at SteelHome, in Barcelona this September as he shares SteelHome’s proprietary market insights into China’s effective coke capacity, coking coal imports, global pricing dynamics and the competitive landscape for Chinese coke exports.
Session 3 – Market by Market: Regional Pressures, Opportunities, and the View from the Ground takes place on Wednesday 16th September and brings together perspectives from across the global steel, coke and coking coal markets. The session includes the following speakers...
