Hi Jenny, it’s great to have you joining AsiaCoke 2024! Please could you share an overview of what your presentation “Global metallurgical coal long term outlook” will cover?
The presentation will be composed of two sections, including near-term outlook (2024 and 2025) and long-term outlook(2023-2050):
Near-term outlook includes:
- Global metallurgical coal market underwent dramatic changes over the past two years: factors led to high volatilities for metallurgical coal market. 2. Global metallurgical coal trade flow for 2023/2024/2025 and near-term implications for global metallurgical coal demand and supply. 3. China's steel domestic consumption and hot metal production will soften from 2024, dragged by sluggish property sector. 4. India will continue adding more BF/BOF capacities in 2024 and 2025. India emerging as the new seaborne price setter. 5. China-led investment in new BF/BOF capacities will explode in SEA, require more coking coal and coke. 6. Near-term challenges for metallurgical coal producers in the context of a sharp fall in demand while a mild rise in global supply. Despite of falling coal prices and high mining cost, margins of coal producers under more pressure, but still broadly positive based on average prices. 8. Metallurgical coal price forecast for 2024 and 2025: China has historically set the price for seaborne premium hard-coking coal but now only provide price floor. Seaborne hard coking coal price will remain well above cost support levels.
Long-term outlook includes:
- Metallurgical coal: key market movers; 9. Global steel and metallurgical coal demand to 2025: The increase of DRI and scrap and what it means for demand. Efficiency-led reductions in coke rates and when we see hydrogen making an impact. India replaces China as the key driver of demand growth. Emerging market in SEA will be the hot spot. . 10. Metallurgical coal supply to 2050: Where will the metallurgical coal come from? Project development across major suppliers; 11. Cost: Operating and capital costs; 12. Long-term price outlook: deal implied and breakeven prices and what it ultimately means for our long-term price forecast. 13. Upside and downside risk: Industry under-investment is stark in the longer term. Supply gap will emerge in the mid 2030s although Russian volume.
What do you think are the key challenges facing the industry in 2024 and 2025?
India: India switches to a price-sensitive buyer of metallurgical coal since Q1 2023. Will this trend continue?
China: Will China’s steel demand fall sharply in 2024? Will China‘s steel exports to rise further in 2024？
Australia: Will Australian supply to recover as expected.
What would be the top three market trends in Coke and Coal?
Macro-economic factors still have primacy in short-term pricing. Loosening monetary trend should have a beneficial effect on demand. 2024 to see a rebound but we may need to wait until 2025 to feel its full effect.
China dealing with current economic malaise and longer-term structural problems.
Metallurgical coal is seeing larger-than-expected falls since March 2024. Will softening trends continue in 2024 and 2025. Metallurgical coal has seen delayed surpluses in 2023. Supply performance also critical for metallurgical coal outlook in 2024.
Australian recovery will drive the supply recovery to meet rising demand in Asia in 2024/2025.
What are you looking forward to at this year's AsiaCoke Summit?
Branding Woodmac and attract potential clients through presenting high-quality and precise market analysis and forecast.
Why do you feel it's important for people to attend the Summit?
The Summit is highly influential globally and it creates an opportunity for attendees to learn and exchange views.
